Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
